A new study from Juniper Research has revealed that the number of homes fitted with heat pumps globally will exceed 238 million in 2029, growing 35 per cent from 2025.
This compares with 177 million in 2025, representing only 7 per cent of homes. Growth is being driven primarily by regulatory interventions, such as the UK’s Clean Heat Market Mechanism, which instructs boiler manufacturers to have a minimum percentage of their revenue come from heat pump sales.
Despite this, massive challenges remain for heat pump adoption. The study predicts that the high installation cost, lack of trained heat pump experts, and a lack of suitability for apartments will restrict acceptance beyond early adopters.
An extract from the new report, Global Heat Pump Market 2025-2029, is now available as a free download.
Innovation needed to reach 90 per cent of homes
To unlock the 90 per cent of homes that will not have an alternative heating system by 2029, heat pump manufacturers must invest in emerging technologies that create greater efficiencies in the heating process and reduce cost. The report identified R32 refrigerant as a key solution to help vendors improve operating efficiency immediately.
Report author Thomas Wilson added: “Vendors must promote the cost-saving abilities they bring to their units to stimulate growth. More efficient components, such as variable-speed compressors, increase the value of heat pumps to end users by reducing their monthly energy expenditure.”
The report identified that due to the difficulties in retrofitting heat pumps in space-constrained apartments, fitting monobloc systems should be a key priority to generate growth. Failure to do so will result in stagnating heat pump adoption and possible regulatory fines due to missing sales targets.
About the Research Suite
The new market research suite offers the most comprehensive assessment of the heat pump market to date, providing analysis and forecasts of over 27,000 data points across 61 countries over five years. It includes a ‘Competitor Leaderboard’ and an examination of current and future market opportunities.
For two decades, Juniper Research has provided market intelligence and advisory services to the global technology sector, and it is retained by many of the world’s leading intermediaries and providers.
