Research has suggested that the high cost of installing heat pumps for home heating could slow down people’s wide adoption of the technology and leave government targets missing.
A study has shown that the UK’s average installation cost of green heating systems has remained relatively unchanged over the past decade.
Although projections suggest a 20 to 25 per cent reduction in installation costs by 2030, researchers have said that this falls significantly short of the targets set by UK policymakers.
Experts said domestic heat pumps currently play a marginal role in heating UK homes. The number of installations is growing, but remains low compared with traditional, fossil fuel-based heating systems.
Researchers say the findings highlight the need for policy aspirations based on realistic assessments of likely cost reductions and to develop incentives to address the relatively high upfront costs of some low-carbon technologies.
Dr Mark Winskel from the School of Social and Political Science at the University of Edinburgh, said, “While there is a growing policy consensus that heat pumps will play a key role in decarbonising home heating, there are some stubborn economic challenges. Our research suggests the need for realistic expectations about heat pump installed cost reductions and introducing targeted support measures to reflect their competitive running costs and wider benefits.”
As well as decarbonising home heating, advocates for heat pumps say they offer energy security and efficiency benefits and can offer lower and more stable energy bills.
Researchers at the University of Edinburgh and Imperial College London used systematic evidence review techniques to analyse historic and forecast data for the installation costs of domestic heat pumps.
They included data on the different factors that can affect heat pump costs, such as the type of home, technology design and the wider heating system.
They also assessed equipment and non-equipment costs and the factors affecting them, such as international manufacturing supply chains and local labour markets.
They found no significant reduction in the average installed cost of heat pumps over the past decade in the UK, while modest cost reductions were seen internationally.
However, they said there are prospects for reduced installed costs in the UK. The anticipated savings could be higher for non-equipment costs – through more efficient installations, for example – than for equipment costs.
However, while there are prospects for reductions in installation costs, the researchers say these reductions are unlikely to be on a scale and pace to match UK policy targets.
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