The Murray–Darling Basin Authority has released its 2025 outlook, underlining the effects of climate change on Australia’s largest river system.
According to the report, the Basin will likely face hotter temperatures, increased variability of rainfall and more droughts, with three future climate scenarios detailed.
Based on scientific evidence from the 2025 Sustainable Yields project – a whole-of-Basin assessment of potential climate change impacts on water resources – the report presents the following climate scenarios to 2050:
- Hotter and slightly wetter: “Increased rainfall in warmer months could improve runoff in some regions but still bring more intense rainfall events and water quality challenges.”
- Hotter and drier: “The most likely direction of change in the Basin’s hydroclimate.”
- Hotter and much drier: “Rainfall and runoff decrease sharply, placing greater pressure on water availability, ecosystems and communities.”
Under all scenarios, the Murray–Darling Basin will experience higher temperatures and greater variability, with the southern Basin likely to see the largest declines in cool-season rainfall and runoff, while the northern Basin will experience stronger swings between wet and dry periods.
So where to from here?
Standing as an important checkpoint for adaptive management processes en route to 2050, the 2025 Murray–Darling Basin Outlook will help governments, communities and industries understand the challenges and opportunities of an evolving climate future.
It also helps planning processes to ensure rivers are preserved for generations to come.
The report details action points for various segments of industry, particularly groundwater, which is an important water resource for many river ecosystems in the Murray–Darling Basin.
With total groundwater recharge likely to reduce due to climate change, the Murray–Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) recognises the need to improve groundwater modelling.
“Existing groundwater models have limitations in supporting current water management needs, as they do not include climate change the impacts of surface water connectivity and local drawdown impact,” the report said.
A project in the Lower Namoi and Upper Lachlan groundwater areas of the Basin is currently being carried out to better understand groundwater behaviours.
More broadly, the MDBA said it is preparing for future climate scenarios by “understanding the impacts of climate change on the Basin’s water resources across a range of hydroclimate futures”, “developing improved processes and outcomes to address (climate change) risks”, and better understanding the “potential consequences of long-term climate for the Basin and how best to respond”.
More specifically, the MDBA is advancing work in several modules to inform the 2026 Basin Plan Review. This includes work across rivers, farm dams and groundwater to build accurate and detailed computer models to “better understand related processes and the effects of climate change”.
Work will also look to better understand ecological impacts by exploring “key species and species groups that may be affected by climate changes in temperature, rainfall and drought”.
The MDBA also recognises that First Nations people must be involved and provide leadership to inform the design of future work.
“MDBA is exploring collaborative work with First Nations people that explores the relationship between flows, climate change and First Nations outcomes across the Basin,” the report said.
To learn more about the 2025 Murray–Darling Basin Outlook, visit the MDBA website.
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